For years now at Alt-Market (and Neithercorp.us) they have carefully outlined the most likely path of collapse to take place within the U.S., and a vital part of that analysis included economic destabilization caused by a loss of the dollar’s world reserve status and petro-status. I have also always made clear that this fiscal crisis event would not occur in the midst of a political vacuum. The central banks and international financiers that created our ongoing and developing disaster are NOT going to allow the destruction of the American economy, the dollar, or global markets without a cover event designed to hide their culpability. They need something big. Something so big that the average citizen is overwhelmed with fear and confusion. A smoke and mirrors magic trick so raw and soul shattering it leaves the very population of the Earth mesmerized and helpless to understand the root of the nightmare before them. The elites need a fabricated Apocalypse.

Enter Syria…

I have been warning about the Syrian trigger point for a very long time. Syria’s mutual defense pact with Iran, its strong ties to Russia, the Russian naval base off its coast, the advanced Russian weaponry in it’s arsenal, its proximity to vulnerable oil shipping lanes, all make the nation a perfect catalyst for a global catastrophe. The civil war in Syria is already spreading into neighboring countries like Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, and if one looks at the facts objectively, the entire war is a product of covert action on the part of the U.S. and its allies

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The U.S. trained, armed, and funded the insurgency using Al Qaeda operatives. Saudi Arabia has sent funding and arms as well. Israel has aided the rebels using air strikes within Syria’s borders (even though this means that the Israeli government is essentially helping their supposed mortal enemies). This war would NOT be taking place today without the express efforts of the West. Period.

If one takes more than a brief examination of the Syrian insurgency, they would find an organization of monsters. Wretched amoral wetwork ghouls whose crimes have been thoroughly documented, including the mass executions of unarmed captured soldiers, the torture and beheading of innocent civilians, the mutilation and cannibalism of dead bodies, and the institution of theological tyranny on a terrified populace. The U.S. created and unleashed these demons, and now, we the people are being asked by the White House to support them through force of arms.
But what is the goal here…?

The goal, I believe, is to utterly transform the world’s political, economic, and social systems. The goal is to generate intense fear; fear that can be used as capital to buy, as the globalists call it, a “new world order”. Syria is the first domino in a long chain of calamities; what the Rand Corporation sometimes refers to as a “linchpin”. As I write this, the Obama Administration is moving naval and ground forces into position and clamoring in a painfully pathetic fashion to convince the American public that 90% of us are “wrong” and that a strike on Syria is, in fact, necessary. It appears that the establishment is dead set on starting this chain reaction and accelerating the global collapse. So, if a strike does occur, what can we expect to happen over the next few years? Here is a rundown…

1) Many U.S. allies will refrain from immediate participation in an attack on Syria. Obama will continue unilaterally (or with the continued support of Israel and Saudi Arabia), placing even more focus on the U.S. as the primary cause of the crisis.

2) Obama will attempt to mitigate public outcry by limiting attacks to missile strikes, but these strikes will be highly ineffective compared to previous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

3) A no fly zone will be established, but the U.S. navy will seek to stay out of range of high grade Russian missile technology in the hands of Syria, and this will make response time to the Syrian Air Force more difficult. Expect much higher American naval and air force casualties compared to Iraq and Afghanistan.

4) Iran will immediately launch troops and arms in support of Syria. Syria will become a bewildering combat soup of various fighting forces battling on ideological terms, rather than over pure politics and borders. Battles will spread into other countries, covertly and overtly, much like during Vietnam.

5) Israel will probably be the first nation to send official ground troops into Syria (and likely Iran), citing a lack of effectiveness of U.S. airstrikes. American troops will follow soon after.

6) Iran will shut down the Straight of Hormuz sinking multiple freighters in the narrow shipping lane and aiming ocean skimming missiles at any boats trying to clear the wreckage. Oil exports through the straight of Hormuz will stop for months, cutting 20% of the world’s oil supply overnight.

7) The Egyptian civil war, now underway but ignored by the mainstream, will explode due to increased anger over U.S. presence in Syria. The Suez Canal will become a dangerous shipping option for oil exporters. Many will opt to travel around the Horn of Africa, adding two weeks to shipping time and increasing the cost of the oil carried.

8 Saudi Arabia will see an uprising of insurgency that has been brewing under the surface for years.

9) Gasoline prices will skyrocket. I am predicting a 75%-100% increase in prices within two-three months of any strike on Syria.

10) Travel will become difficult if not impossible with high gasoline costs. What little of our economy was still thriving on vacation dollars will end. Home purchases will fall even further than before because of the extreme hike in travel expenses required for families to move.

11) Russia will threaten to limit or cut off all natural gas exports to the EU if they attempt to join with the U.S. in aggression against Syria. The EU will comply due to their dependency on Russian energy.

12) Russia will position naval forces in the Mediterranean to place pressure on the U.S. I feel the possibility of Russia initiating direct confrontation with the U.S. is limited, mainly because countries like Russia and China do not need to engage the U.S. through force of arms in order to strike a painful blow.

13) China and Russia will finally announce their decision to drop the dollar completely as the world reserve currency. A process which already began back in 2005, and which global banks have been fully aware of for years.

14) Because of China’s position as the number one exporter and importer in the world, many nations will follow suit in dumping the dollar in bilateral trade. The dollar’s value will implode. China, Russia, and the war in Syria will be blamed, and global banks including the Federal Reserve will be ignored as the true culprits.

15) The combination of high energy prices and a devaluing dollar will strike retail prices hard. Expect a doubling of prices on all goods. Look for many imported goods to begin disappearing from shelves.

16) Homelessness will expand exponentially as cuts to welfare programs, including food stamps, are made inevitable. However, welfare will not disappear, it will merely be “adjusted” to fit different goals. The homeless themselves will be treated like criminals. The roaming bands of jobless drifters common during the Great Depression will not exist during a modern crisis. State and Federal agencies will pursue an “out of sight, out of mind” policy towards the indigent, forcing them into “aid shelters” or other bureaucratic contraptions designed to conditioning the homeless to accept refugee status, making them totally dependent on federal scraps, but also prisoners on federally designated camps.

17) Terrorist attacks (false flag or otherwise) will spread like wildfire. Israel is highly susceptible. The U.S. may see a string of attacks, including cyber-attacks on infrastructure. Syria and it’s supporters will be blamed regardless of evidence. The White House will begin broad institution of authoritarian powers, including continuity of government executive orders, the Patriot Act, the NDAA, etc.

18 Martial Law may not even be officially declared, but the streets of America will feel like martial law none the less.

19) False paradigms will flood the mainstream as the establishment seeks to divide American citizens. The conflict will be painted as Muslim against Christian, black against white, poor against rich (but not the super rich elites, of course). Liberty Movement activists will be labeled “traitors” for “undermining government credibility” during a time of crisis. The Neo-Conservatives will place all blame on Barack Obama. Neo-Liberals will blame conservatives as “divisive”. Liberty Movement activists will point out that both sides are puppets of the same international cabal, and be labeled “traitors” again. The establishment will try to coax Americans into turning their rage on each other.

20) The Homeland Security apparatus will be turned completely inward, focusing entirely on “domestic enemies”. The domain of the TSA will be expanded onto highways and city streets. Local police will be fully federalized. Northcom will field soldiers within U.S. border to deal with more resistant quarters of the country. Totalitarianism will become the norm.

What Can We Do Right Now?

The level of collapse, I suspect, will not be total. The government is not going to disappear, rather, it will become more dominant in its posture. Certain sections of the country will be maintained while others fall apart. The IMF will move in to “help” the ailing U.S. economy by tying funding to the SDR (Special Drawing Rights). America’s economy will be absorbed by the IMF. Constitutional protections will be fully erased in the name of reestablishing “law and order”, with the promise that the loss of our civil liberties is “only temporary”.

If the U.S. strikes Syria, and refuses to disengage, these things WILL happen. So, the next question is what can we do about it?

1) Given that this crisis is going to be riding a wave of extremely high energy prices, every single Liberty Movement activist (and every American for that matter) should be stockpiling energy reserves. Motor oil, gasoline (with gas saver), diesel fuel, propane, etc. should be at the top of your list right now. A generator should be next. Prices are only going to rise from here on out. Buy reserves now, before it is too late.

2) Everyone in the Liberty Movement should have at least minimal solar power capability. A couple of 100 watt panels, an inverter, a charge controller, and two-four deep cycle batteries can be had for under $1000. You may not be able to run your house on it, but you can at least charge important electronics, run a well pump, run some lights, a security system, etc.

3) The internet as we know it will no longer exist. The White House will apply preexisting executive orders on U.S. communications to restrict internet use, or, a convenient cyber attack will take place, opening the door for federal controls. The web will likely still operate, but only as a shell of its former greatness. Certain sites and email providers will be designated “safe”, while others will be designated “unsafe”. This leaves a gaping hole in our society’s ability to communicate information quickly and efficiently, and, it removes the alternative media from the picture. The best solution I can present for this problem is Ham Radio, which is very difficult for the establishment to shut down. Ham Radio communication chains could take the place of the internet as a lower-tech but useful means of spreading information across the country. In the next few months, EVERYONE in the Liberty Movement should have a Ham Radio set, or handheld model, and they should know how to use it.

4) Harden your home during the next few months. Place security bars on windows, and replace weak doors with steel core doors. An internal lock bar will still frustrate entry by those who might blast hinges. Add a fire suppression system for good measure. This might sound like overkill, but if you want to be able to sleep at night during such an event, you must make your home your castle. No one should be able to enter your house without your permission.

5) Learn a useful trade right now. If you don’t already know how to produce or fix a necessary item or commodity, take the next six months to learn how. If you don’t know how to teach a valuable skill, get to work. Barter and trade will become the primary method of economy during a dollar collapse. Make sure you are sought after within your local economy.

6) Cache items before winter begins. Do not assume you will be able to stay on your homestead indefinitely. There are no guarantees during collapse. A wildfire could reduce your neighborhood to ashes in hours. Your home could be overrun. Make sure you have secondary supplies in a safe location just in case.

7) Find two friends (or more) right now that are willing to coordinate with you in the event that the worst happens. This means mutual aid and defense. This means predetermined arrangements for supplies, communications, meeting spots, and security. Do it now. Do not wait until our situation worsens.

8) Buy six months’ worth of food over the course of the next two months. Bulk food, freeze dried, MRE’s, whatever. Just buy it. Have a lot of food already? I don’t care. Buy six more months of supplies now. You’ll thank me later.

9) Cultivate nutrient rich soil before winter begins. Buy a truckload of planting soil and manure and create a garden space if you have not already. Purchase extensive seed storage. Compile books on growing methods.

10) Gauge the temperament of your neighborhood. If all of your neighbors are mindless brain eating zombies, then perhaps it would be better to share a home with a prepared family member in another region now. If not, then start a neighborhood watch. Two or three families working together is far stronger than only one, and can change the temperament of an entire block of homes.

11) Train for tactical movement over the next three months. Learn how to move, shoot, and communicate as a team. Learn your strengths and weaknesses today or suffer the consequences tomorrow.

12) Prepare yourself mentally for conflict and self-defense. Sign up for at least six months of hand to hand defense training. Learn how to deal with the mental and emotional strain of another person trying to harm you. Get used to the idea, because where we’re headed, someone, at some point, will probably want to do you in. Always maintain your conscience and your principles, but never allow yourself to become a victim.

The Tension Is Palpable

As I have said many times before, a fight is coming. There is no way around it. But this fight must be fought intelligently, and we must never forget who the REAL enemy is.

If a revolution ensues and Obama loses control, the establishment could simply trigger a Neo-Con or military coup in order to placate the masses and fool Constitutionalists into believing they have been saved. Useless solutions will be presented to the people, including new leadership composed of more old guard elitists, a disastrous Constitutional Convention, or limited secession (which will never be honored by the establishment anyway). The purpose of these false solutions will be to fool you into relaxing your vigilance, distracting you from seeking justice against globalist organizations, or, to redirect your energies away from self-sufficient communities, counties, and states, ready to dispel aggressive establishment elements.

Beware of those who grasp too readily for leadership over you. Real leaders stand as teachers, not oligarchs, and rarely do they take on the role without considerable reservations. Never trust anyone who does not immediately back their promises with tangible action. And, never forget that we fight not just for the removal of one particular tyrant, but for Constitutional liberty itself. One must follow the other, or there has been no victory.

Though it is depressingly difficult to see in times like these, there is indeed good in this world. There are ideals, and aspirations, and visions, and loves worth standing up for, worth fighting for, and worth dying for. There is still a future worth striving for at the end of the long night. There are dreams here, in the hearts of men, worth realizing. We do not necessarily battle for what humanity is, but for what we have the potential to become. The tides of society may shift and storm, the chaos may become unbearable, and the world may tear apart until it is unrecognizable. The agents of dominion believe they are the only constant, but there is another. In time, the dim pale of tyranny will always break in the light of freedom’s resolute. Get ready, honorable Liberty Movement, our work has just begun.

Start now to make sure you are staying prepared.

Brandon Smith is the founder of the Alternative Market Project, an organization designed to help you find like-minded activists and preppers in your local area so that you can network and construct communities for barter and mutual aid. Join www.Alt-Market.com today and learn what it means to step away from the unstable mainstream system and build something better. You can contact Brandon Smith at: [email protected].

http://www.thesleuthjournal.com/expect-next-stage-collapse/

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Note: As our benevolent benefactors debate our future in the hallowed halls of Congress, one can’t help but wonder what would happen if the US government were to shut down for an extended period of time. Let’s be honest, if the Federal government shut down and essentially stopped operating it’d almost be a dream come true. They’d pass no more laws, no more restrictions, and they’d finally be out of our lives (and, as a side effect, the President would apparently have to do his own laundry!). However, with any such shut down would come consequences. Though they’ll probably “save us” again in the 11th hour, Brandon Smith of Alt Market explores the possibilities and after-effects should the government shut down for an extended period of time; be it today or at some point in the future. It would be painful to be sure, as tens of millions of Americans would almost immediately lose access to the social safety net that is keeping the whole thing afloat. 

There is a considerable amount of debate in alternative economic circles as to whether a federal government shutdown would be a “good thing” or a “bad thing”.  Frankly, even I am partially conflicted.  I love to read mainstream news stories about how a shutdown in the capital would be “horrible” because Barack Obama might have to reduce the White House cleaning staff and wash his own laundry:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-27/obama-stripped-to-skeleton-staff-in-a-government-shutdown.html

It’s about time that sellout bastard did something to clean up his own act.  I also love the idea of the federal government out of the picture and removed from the U.S. dynamic.  Americans need to learn again how to live without the nanny state, even if only for a few weeks, and what better way than to go cold turkey.  I can hear the tortured sobs of the socialists now, crying for their SNAP cards and low grade government healthcare.  It’s like…beautiful music…

That said, as much as centralized government needs to be erased from the face of the planet, there are, indeed, consequences that must be dealt with.  It is foolish to believe otherwise.  No social system, and I mean NO SOCIAL SYSTEM, changes without pain to the population.  I am not among those that cheer a federal shutdown, because I understand that the only people to ultimately feel suffering will be average citizens, not the establishment itself.  The sheeple may be ignorant and blind, but no one deserves the kind of unmitigated hellfire that could rain down upon our country if a shutdown continues for an extended period of time.  Call me a humanitarian…

As I write this, mainstream media projections estimate a 90% chance of government shutdown by midnight on September 30th.  Though technically, government funds will not run out until October 17th:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/09/25/treasury-debt-limit-october-17/2867471/

We have dealt with this kind of talk before over the past few years, and it’s interesting to see the kind of cynicism that has developed over the idea of a shutdown event.  After all, the last time a government shutdown occurred was at the end of 1995, lasting only a couple of weeks into 1996.  The GOP has folded so many times over the U.S. budget and debt ceiling that most of the public expects they will obviously do it again.  It is certainly possible that the Republicans will roll over, however, I am not so sure of that this time around.  Why?  Not because Obamacare is on the table.  Obamacare is just a distraction.  No, I’m far more interested in the circumstances surrounding the U.S. dollar.

Obamacare is designed to fail.  Anyone with any financial or mathematical sense could look at the real national debt and deficit projections of the U.S. and understand that there is no money and never will be enough money to fund universal healthcare.  The GOP could simply let the program take effect, sit back, and watch it crash and burn over the next three to five years.  This would entail, though, watching the whole of our economy crash and burn with it.

What we have developing in front of us is the recipe for a new false paradigm.  Already, the MSM is discussing the possibility of debt default and who will be responsible under such circumstances.  Not surprisingly “Tea Party” conservatives have been named the primary culprits if a shutdown goes south; even former Democratic president Bill Clinton is getting in on the blame game:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/09/bill-clinton-when-it-comes-to-obamacare-gop-begging-for-america-to-fail/

All the bickering over Obamacare is fascinating, I’m sure, but lets set the Affordable Care Act aside for a moment and look at the bigger and more important picture.  The private Federal Reserve Bank has just announced to much surprise a complete reversal on its suggested QE “taper” measures, resulting in a shocked and confused marketplace.  If the U.S. fiscal system is stable and sound, as the Fed has been suggesting for the past year, then why continue stimulus measures at all?  Could it be that most if not all positive economic numbers released by the Fed and the Labor Department are actually fake, and that investors have been duped into assuming overall growth when America is actually in an accelerated decline?   Wouldn’t that be a high speed excrement storm straight out of left field!

The first day rally over the Fed announcement faded quickly, resulting in a slow bleed of the Dow ever since.  The magic of Fed stimulus is wearing off, and the investment world is not happy.  If I were a member of the Federal Reserve Bank, I suppose I would appreciate a large scale distraction designed to take attention away from me and my elitist club-mates as the primary culprits behind the greatest currency implosion in the history of the world.

Sadly, a government shutdown is sizable threat to the American financial system, and few people seem to get it.  Perhaps because the expectation is that any shutdown would only be a short term concern.  And, this assumption might be correct.  But, if a shutdown takes place, and, if “gridlock” continues for an extended period of time, I have little doubt that the U.S economy will experience renewed crisis.  Here’s why:

Exponential Debt

Obamacare only tops a long list of already existing “unfunded liabilities” (otherwise known as entitlement programs).  These programs are not counted in the government’s official calculations of national debt or deficit spending, but they cost taxpayers money all the same.  True deficit costs and national debt costs expand every year without fail.  If the debt ceiling does not rise in accordance with this exponential debt, a default is inevitable.  No amount of increased taxes could ever fill the black hole already created by negative government spending.

A long term government shutdown will eventually require cuts in entitlements, if not a total overhaul of certain aid programs.  Imagine an end to all disability payments, including veterans disability payments.  Imagine federal employee pensions put on hold for an undesignated period of time.  Imagine food stamps placed on hiatus for 50 million people.  Imagine how many states now rely on federal funding just to keep municipalities from bankruptcy.  Get the picture now?

End Of Foreign Faith In U.S. Treasuries

In a disgusting display of propaganda, media outlet Reuters has released an article claiming that, default or not, Asian investors and central banks are “hostage” to U.S. debt:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/29/us-usa-debt-asia-analysis-idUSBRE98S0GY20130929

Their argument essentially revolves around the lie that Asian investors believe an American default to be “unthinkable”.  Surely, the unnamed Japanese investment source they cite as an “insider” truly represents the whole of Asia.

The reality is, the Asians (the Chinese in particular) have been preparing for a calamity in the U.S. Treasury market for years.

Most foreign investors in U.S. Treasuries have converted their long term bond holdings to short term bond holdings; meaning, they are ready to liquidate their bonds at a moment’s notice.  Overall purchase levels of treasuries are either static, or falling depending on the nation involved.

China has been internationalizing its currency, the Yuan, since 2005.  China has opened Yuan “clearing houses in multiple countries to allow faster convertibility of the Yuan, quietly supplanting the dollar as the world reserve currency.  These clearing houses now exist in London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and Kenya.  The Federal Reserve and international banks like JP Morgan are heavily involved in the internationalization of the Yuan.

The assertion that Asia is somehow hostage to U.S. debt is a lie beyond all proportions.  In truth, the U.S. economy is actually hostage to Asian holdings of U.S. debt.  A call for a dump of U.S. treasury bonds by China, for example, in the face of a U.S. default, would immediately result in a global chain reaction ending in the destruction of the dollar as the world reserve currency.  This is not speculation, this is mathematical fact.  China is not going to sit back and do nothing while their investment in U.S. debt quickly disintegrates.  Why would they take the chance when they could could just sell, sell, sell!

The very idea that Reuters is attempting to twist the fundamentals surrounding a default event leads me to believe a default event may be preordained.

What Will Be Defunded?

Non-essential personnel (which apparently includes Obama’s maids), will be the first to receive a pink slip from the federal government.  Extra Pentagon staff, EPA staff, FDA staff, IRS staff, etc will all be cut.  Good riddance.  But what will follow will not be so pleasant.

If a shutdown stretches for months, expect cuts in all support programs and entitlements.  Veterans disability checks, social security, Medicare, employee pensions, even the Postal Service is likely to undergo defunding.  National Parks, and schools that receive federal aid will discover immediate cash-loss.  In fact, any state or city that relies on federal funds should plan for the possibility that those funds will disappear.

Military cuts would be at the bottom of the list, but I would not discount the chance of that either.

It cannot be denied; an enormous subsection of the American public is dependent on federal money.  If that money dries up, chaos will ensue.  I don’t like it, but it is a concern.

Controlled Reaction

A long term shutdown will be catastrophe no matter how you slice it.  Foreign creditors will react harshly.  The bond market will see a haircut not unlike that given to investors in Greek treasuries.  Austerity will become an American way of life.  The only mitigating factor will be the Federal Reserve, which I believe may institute “extraordinary measures” without congressional consent in order to continue feeding stimulus into government regardless of whether the debt ceiling is raised or not.  Given enough desperation, the American public might even applaud such an action and praise the Fed as “heroic”.

In this situation, the U.S. would be facing a Weimar-style currency collapse, rather than a debt default.  But in either scenario, the dollar is the final target.

Unfortunately, too many economic analysts presume that the only threat to the dollar’s value is hyperinflation (these are the same people that quote the Fed’s crooked CPI numbers).  But the dollar is just as vulnerable to a debt default and loss of reserve status.  Devaluation seems to be inevitable regardless of the outcome of the funding debate.

The Republicans could still surrender, and even if they don’t, real damages will not be felt until after October 17th.  This is plenty of time to manipulate the public into demanding more spending even when more spending is not in our best interests in the long term.  Our greatest concern, though, should be whether or not the establishment is ready to pull the plug on the dollar altogether, using the debt ceiling crisis as cover in order to distract away from the involvement of international banks in the overall problem.  There is no doubt given the facts at hand that America is on the edge of a terrible pyre.  Is this the event that will finally trigger collapse?  We’ll know more in a week.

Start now to make sure you are staying prepared.

Via: shtfplan

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